DETERMINATION OF OPTIMAL HEDGING RULE USING FUZZY SET THEORY FOR MULTI-RESERVOIR OPERATION

To deal with severe drought when water supply is insufficient hedging rule, based on hedging rule curve, is proposed. In general, in discrete hedging rules, the rationing factors have changed from a zone to another zone at once. Accordingly, this paper is an attempt to improve the conventional hedging rule to control the changes of rationing factors. In this regard, the simulation model has employed a fuzzy approach, and this causes rationing factor changing during a long term simulation gradually. To optimize different parameters of the purposed hedging a Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) algorithm has been considered. The minimum of two objectives Modified Shortage Index (MSI) involving water supply of minimum flow and agriculture demands can be taken as the optimization objectives. The results of the proposed hedging rule indicate long term and annual MSI values have considerably improved compared to the conventional hedging rule. This determines that the proposed method is promising and efficient to mitigate the water shortage problem.